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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/16 10:45

   Corn Higher, Soybeans Lower Midday Wednesday

   Corn is 16 to 18 cents higher on the front month, 7 to 9 cents higher on new 
crop; soybeans are 9 to 11 cents lower with flat spreads, and wheat is 6 to 18 
cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 17 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is narrowly mixed. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer 
with crude up $0.70. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading and hogs 
limit lower. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $2.60.


   Corn trade is 16 to 18 cents higher on the front months with new crop 7 to 9 
cents higher and short covering this morning as the forecast is shifting a bit 
drier, and strong spread action boosting trade. Ethanol margins are seeing 
pressure from corn values along with weekly production dropping 42,000 barrels 
per day, while stocks were 620,000 higher, easing tightness. USDA announced 
153,416 metric tons of new crop sold to unknown. Brazil weather looks mostly 
unchanged short term as the crop advances towards harvest with some late rains 
while U.S. weather will be watched for consistency in the second week forecast, 
while heat will be the rule of many the next few days. Corn basis should remain 
flat to weaker near term with more attention going to new crop. On the July 
contract, trade is back above the 20-day at $6.65 with the late strength 
Tuesday holding, with the upper Bollinger Band at $7.06 as resistance.


   Soybeans are 9 to 11 cents lower up front with flat spread action, and wide 
ranges continuing. Meal is $8.00 to $9.00 higher and oil is 2.70 cents to 3.10 
cents lower with the soy oil liquidation picking up again while meal tries to 
come off the recent lows. The weather pattern should allow for short-term 
stress to give way to rains in the center of the belt. South America should 
continue to see shipping progress short term, with U.S. basis soft with 
processors and exporters softening bids recently. On the July soybean chart, 
support is the fresh low at $14.50, with the lower Bollinger Band resistance at 
$14.62, which we have tested Wednesday morning but failed to hold.


   Wheat trade is 6 to 18 cents higher with spring wheat leading so far as the 
rains shift east. The dollar is attempting to consolidate at over 90 points on 
the index, which will work to limit upside if sustained with more consistent 
action this week. Warmer weather this week should help to bring winter wheat 
along after the slowdown last week with early harvest getting underway on the 
far Southern Plains. Other Northern Hemisphere weather will continue to be 
watched as well with little fresh news on the front with Russia mostly OK for 
now. KC continues at a 52-cent discount to Chicago widening a bit, with 
Minneapolis at a 92-cent premium. KC July on the chart has resistance the 
20-day at $6.25 with support at the lower Bollinger Band at $6.01.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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